Near the upcoming election, I was interested in an article in the September/October 2014 issue of Foreign Affairs: “Crashing the Party: Why the GOP Must Modernize to Win” by commentator David Frum. I've taken notes for this blog before concerning politics, national narratives, and conflicting ideals. Frum notes that three trends have defined the GOP during the last several years, but these trends complicate the party’s prospects. First, the party relies upon the votes of the elderly, a demographic that relies upon the government---but reducing government is one of the party’s goals! Second, the donors of the party have become more extreme ideologically, “encouraging congressional Republicans to embrace ever more radical tactics.” And third, the party’s process have become more rigid, making it difficult for the party to adapt to change (p. 37).
An interesting aspect of #1 is that aging baby boomers are becoming more conservative in economics. But they are demanding cuts in programs that don’t affect them. Also, they are liberal in terms of social issues like women’s and gay rights (p. 38).
On #2, party donors feared the inflationary consequences of low interest rates, and they also feared the future high taxes necessary to pay for a large deficit. Thus, Republicans opposed meansures that would lower rates and also opposed stimulus spending for airports, roads, and briges, and also opposed unemployment benefits. These were measures that Republicans had past supported, but during the recent economic recovery they could not find commonality with the unemployed---because, along with these things, the party was stuck in a narrative against government dependency (the “47 percent”) (pp. 39-40).
On #3, the rigidity of the party has also meant difficulties like the 2011 sequester. Yet those who had voted against changing the debt ceiling were some “established Republicans... who got much of their campaign money from businesses that would have faced disaster in the event of a government default” (p. 40).
An additional challenge is the Hispanic vote, which is growing---and on crucial economic issues, Hispanics are very liberal. Another significant group is Asian Americans, predominantly university graduates (a constuency for Republicans in years past) but who don’t ascribe to the “sectarian [Christian] religiosity” of many Republicans (p. 44).
Another challenge is the fact that the country is actually in a very good period, which is at odds with the often dismal portrayal of America painted by contemporary conservatives. Frum points out that the national crime rate is down, as are road fatalities, acid rain-causing emissions, the abortion rate, and consumption of alcohol and tobacco, and meanwhile, according to Frum, more African Americans are graduating from college over the past several years (p. 46). A noted conservative writer, Frum believes that conservatism might be doing well in American right now, but the “angry, insurrectionary mood of the past half-dozen years is as unjustified as it is dangerous to the stability of American government” (p. 46).
What do you think?
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